Augsburg 2-1 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 25 Feb 2024

Augsburg
2-1 HT 0-1
Freiburg
📅25/02/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Augsburg vs Freiburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
31%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.82
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.2
6+ Goals
10%
10.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.28
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
15%
5.26
X/2
11%
6.05
X/X
14%
4.97
2/1 EV+ ✓
9%
25.5
2/2
14%
4.0
2/X
7%
12.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 9% vs market 1.8%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+0.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-2.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.2pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Augsburg v Freiburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +8%
1.40/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.53
+0% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +6%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
333 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 75%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
18.9 Crosses 16.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.6

Augsburg vs Freiburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Freiburg
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
0.92 xG 1.83
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
278 Passes 312
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
01.10.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 2-0 HT 1-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
28.01.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 3-1 HT 2-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
06.08.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 0-4 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
19.02.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 1-2 HT 1-2 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
26.09.2021 Freiburg Freiburg 3-0 HT 3-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
21.03.2021 Freiburg Freiburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1

Augsburg 2-1 Freiburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Augsburg
2-1
AWAY Freiburg
1.65 xG 1.61
63% Ball Possession 37%
19 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 2
430 Passes 209
83% Pass Accuracy 67%
33 Box Touches 10
25 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Augsburg vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Augsburg squeezed past Freiburg 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Augsburg as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Augsburg had 63% of the ball to Freiburg's 37%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 1.65 to 1.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Augsburg and 2.67 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of Augsburg vs Freiburg?

Augsburg 2-1 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Augsburg vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Augsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 41%, draw 28%, Freiburg 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Augsburg), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Augsburg) ✓ BTTS Yes
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