Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Hoffenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 25 Feb 2024

Borussia Dortmund
2-3 HT 2-1
Hoffenheim
📅25/02/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Borussia Dortmund vs Hoffenheim Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.47
Draw
24%
4.62
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
4.0
Over 2.5
63%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.35
No
40%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
10.9
2-3 Goals
34%
2.65
4-5 Goals
28%
2.31
6+ Goals
20%
3.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.71
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.15
X/1
15%
4.3
X/2
7%
13.4
X/X
12%
9.35
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
16.05
2/2
9%
7.67
2/X
7%
16.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 16.05 — our 11% vs market 3.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
64%
-10.8pp
24%
Draw
18%
+5.5pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.2pp
37%
Under 2.5
22%
+15.8pp
63%
Over 2.5
78%
-15.8pp
60%
BTTS Yes
70%
-9.7pp
40%
BTTS No
30%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Borussia Dortmund v Hoffenheim — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +3%
2.23/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.86
+36% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / +3%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
458 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
30.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
16.6 Crosses 16.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.9

Borussia Dortmund vs Hoffenheim Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Hoffenheim
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.16 xG 1.39
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
394 Passes 359
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
31 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
01.11.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-0 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AFK
29.09.2023 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-3 HT 1-2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
25.02.2023 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 0-1 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
02.09.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-0 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
22.01.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 2-3 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
27.08.2021 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3-2 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1

Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Hoffenheim — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
2-3
AWAY Hoffenheim
1.94 xG 1.25
70% Ball Possession 30%
21 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 3
601 Passes 211
88% Pass Accuracy 73%
46 Box Touches 10
21 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs Hoffenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim squeezed past Borussia Dortmund 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Borussia Dortmund at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 70% of the ball to Hoffenheim's 30%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 1.94 to 1.25 — on chances, Borussia Dortmund could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.83 for Hoffenheim.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Hoffenheim?

Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Hoffenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Hoffenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 53%, draw 24%, Hoffenheim 23%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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