Greuther Fürth 2-1 Nürnberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
30%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.18
Over 2.5
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.34
2-3 Goals
40%
1.88
4-5 Goals
26%
2.97
6+ Goals
12%
8.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.03
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
4%
14.85
X/1
20%
4.01
X/2
11%
10.4
X/X
13%
5.87
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.2
2/2
12%
7.53
2/X
4%
15.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.2 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
57%
-8.2pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.5pp
30%
Away Win
20%
+9.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.4pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Greuther Fürth EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Nürnberg EU Bookmakers 23%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.48/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.75
+1% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -4%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
390 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 70%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
21.8 Crosses 16.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Greuther Fürth
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Nürnberg
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.42 xG 1.73
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
331 Passes 232
76% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
15.09.2023 Nürnberg Nürnberg 1-1 HT 1-1 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
04.02.2023 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 1-0 HT 0-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
23.07.2022 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-0 HT 1-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
21.03.2021 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 2-2 HT 1-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
29.11.2020 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-3 HT 1-2 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
13.06.2020 Nürnberg Nürnberg 0-1 HT 0-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Greuther Fürth
2-1
AWAY Nürnberg
1.22 xG 0.72
69% Ball Possession 31%
18 Total Shots 3
8 Shots on Target 1
13 Corners 0
454 Passes 172
85% Pass Accuracy 72%
41 Box Touches 5
29 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Greuther Fürth vs Nürnberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Greuther Fürth nicked a narrow win over Nürnberg 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Greuther Fürth as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Greuther Fürth had 69% of the ball to Nürnberg's 31%, shots finished 18-3, expected goals 1.22 to 0.72.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Greuther Fürth had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Greuther Fürth and 1.17 for Nürnberg.

What was the final score of Greuther Fürth vs Nürnberg?

Greuther Fürth 2-1 Nürnberg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Greuther Fürth vs Nürnberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Greuther Fürth win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Greuther Fürth 49%, draw 22%, Nürnberg 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Greuther Fürth), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Greuther Fürth) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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