Hamburg 1-0 Elversberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.98
Over 2.5
61%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.43
No
46%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
7.57
2-3 Goals
37%
2.26
4-5 Goals
28%
2.42
6+ Goals
17%
4.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.84
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.15
X/1
18%
4.24
X/2
10%
12.0
X/X
13%
7.71
2/1
5%
17.9
2/2
7%
7.37
2/X
7%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-9.6pp
26%
Draw
20%
+6.5pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+3.1pp
39%
Under 2.5
30%
+9.1pp
61%
Over 2.5
70%
-9.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
66%
-11.4pp
46%
BTTS No
34%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamburg EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Elversberg EU Bookmakers 22%
-7% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
2.25/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.86
+10% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -15%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
405 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 78%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
22.2 Crosses 10.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hamburg
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Elversberg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.07 xG 3.44
66% Ball Possession 34%
15 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 7
465 Passes 200
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 23
27 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.09.2023 Elversberg Elversberg 2-1 HT 1-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hamburg
1-0
AWAY Elversberg
1.39 xG 0.53
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
380 Passes 332
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
40 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hamburg vs Elversberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hamburg edged past Elversberg 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hamburg as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hamburg had 52% of the ball to Elversberg's 48%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 1.39 to 0.53.

What was the final score of Hamburg vs Elversberg?

Hamburg 1-0 Elversberg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamburg vs Elversberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Hamburg 51%, draw 26%, Elversberg 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hamburg) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hamburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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