Melbourne Victory 0-1 Central Coast Mariners — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 25 Feb 2024

Melbourne Victory
0-1 HT 0-0
Central Coast Mariners
📅25/02/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.64
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.32
6+ Goals
10%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.64 — our 26% vs market 22.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.5
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.3
X/1
19%
4.39
X/2
17%
8.05
X/X
11%
4.92
2/1
8%
23.6
2/2
7%
5.87
2/X
7%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-4.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+4.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.9pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Melbourne Victory v Central Coast Mariners — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Central Coast Mariners EU Bookmakers 29%
-21% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +0%
1.51/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.58
-43% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
381 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 79%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
20.7 Crosses 16.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne Victory
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Central Coast Mariners
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.08 xG 1.42
44% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
324 Passes 428
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.01.2024 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 1-1 HT 0-1 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
03.12.2023 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 2-2 HT 1-1 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
19.03.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 2-0 HT 1-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
31.12.2022 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 2-1 HT 1-1 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
09.03.2022 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 1-1 HT 0-1 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
19.02.2022 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 1-0 HT 0-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS

Melbourne Victory 0-1 Central Coast Mariners — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne Victory
0-1
AWAY Central Coast Mariners
0.95 xG 2.09
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 18
1 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 1
437 Passes 336
88% Pass Accuracy 86%
28 Box Touches 19
26 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Central Coast Mariners edged past Melbourne Victory 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Melbourne Victory at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Melbourne Victory had 57% of the ball to Central Coast Mariners's 43%, shots finished 15-18, expected goals 0.95 to 2.09.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Melbourne Victory and 1.00 for Central Coast Mariners.

What was the final score of Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners?

Melbourne Victory 0-1 Central Coast Mariners in the Australia - A-League on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory 45%, draw 25%, Central Coast Mariners 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Melbourne Victory) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne Victory) ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVUS More Australia - A-League
25 Feb 2024
09:00 Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur Analysis →