Newcastle Jets 2-2 Macarthur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 25 Feb 2024

Newcastle Jets
2-2 HT 0-0
Macarthur
📅25/02/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.74
Over 2.5
58%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.39
No
44%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.7
2-3 Goals
37%
2.15
4-5 Goals
28%
2.49
6+ Goals
13%
5.08
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.44
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
9%
12.7
X/1
8%
4.96
X/2
9%
8.1
X/X
7%
6.44
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.75
2/2
15%
4.78
2/X
8%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.75 — our 10% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-2.2pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.6pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+1.7pp
42%
Under 2.5
33%
+9.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
67%
-9.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
68%
-12.1pp
44%
BTTS No
32%
+12.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle Jets v Macarthur — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Macarthur EU Bookmakers 32%
-8% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -7%
1.81/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.96
+9% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -9%
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
373 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 81%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.2
21.5 Crosses 20.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.2

Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle Jets
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Macarthur
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.67 xG 1.87
52% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
347 Passes 311
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 30
18 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
05.01.2024 Macarthur Macarthur 1-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
14.04.2023 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 2-1 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
18.02.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 0-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
08.01.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 2-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
01.05.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 0-3 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
26.02.2022 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 2-2 HT 1-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS

Newcastle Jets 2-2 Macarthur — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle Jets
2-2
AWAY Macarthur
2.79 xG 1.57
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 10
421 Passes 336
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
39 Box Touches 25
30 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle Jets and Macarthur couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Newcastle Jets at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Newcastle Jets had 54% of the ball to Macarthur's 46%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 2.79 to 1.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle Jets had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Newcastle Jets and 1.00 for Macarthur.

What was the final score of Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur?

Newcastle Jets 2-2 Macarthur in the Australia - A-League on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle Jets win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Newcastle Jets 46%, draw 24%, Macarthur 30%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Newcastle Jets) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newcastle Jets) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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