Osaka 2-1 Parceiro Nagano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.6
Over 2.5
47%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.95
No
46%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
17%
2/1
4%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
59%
-6.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
41%
+6.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
47%
+7.1pp
46%
BTTS No
53%
-7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osaka EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Parceiro Nagano EU Bookmakers 34%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +12%
0.74/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.40
-43% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
264 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 65%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osaka
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Parceiro Nagano
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
6 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
22.10.2023 Parceiro Nagano Parceiro Nagano 0-2 HT 0-0 Osaka Osaka JAP3
04.06.2023 Osaka Osaka 1-0 HT 0-0 Parceiro Nagano Parceiro Nagano JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osaka
2-1
AWAY Parceiro Nagano
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Osaka vs Parceiro Nagano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osaka edged past Parceiro Nagano 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Osaka as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Osaka had 52% of the ball to Parceiro Nagano's 48%, shots finished 8-9.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Osaka had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Osaka and 0.00 for Parceiro Nagano.

What was the final score of Osaka vs Parceiro Nagano?

Osaka 2-1 Parceiro Nagano in the Japan - J3 League on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osaka vs Parceiro Nagano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Osaka 42%, draw 28%, Parceiro Nagano 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Osaka), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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