Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1-2 Matsumoto Yamaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.29
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
27%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
27%
+3.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.6pp
42%
Away Win
46%
-3.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-3.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+3.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.7pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tegevajaro Miyazaki EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 49%
+6% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -3%
1.43/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.10
+23% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +5%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
280 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tegevajaro Miyazaki
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
17.09.2023 Tegevajaro Miyazaki Tegevajaro Miyazaki 0-1 HT 0-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
26.03.2023 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 HT 0-0 Tegevajaro Miyazaki Tegevajaro Miyazaki JAP3
13.11.2022 Tegevajaro Miyazaki Tegevajaro Miyazaki 4-1 HT 1-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
10.04.2022 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 2-2 HT 1-0 Tegevajaro Miyazaki Tegevajaro Miyazaki JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tegevajaro Miyazaki
1-2
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Matsumoto Yamaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matsumoto Yamaga edged past Tegevajaro Miyazaki 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Matsumoto Yamaga as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tegevajaro Miyazaki had 48% of the ball to Matsumoto Yamaga's 52%, shots finished 8-18.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Tegevajaro Miyazaki and 1.25 for Matsumoto Yamaga.

What was the final score of Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1-2 Matsumoto Yamaga in the Japan - J3 League on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Matsumoto Yamaga win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Tegevajaro Miyazaki 30%, draw 27%, Matsumoto Yamaga 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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