Melgar vs Union Comercio Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melgar v Union Comercio — Team-Based Signals
Melgar vs Union Comercio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 2-0
Union Comercio
PER
1-1
HT 0-0
Melgar
PER
1-1
HT 1-0
Union Comercio
PER
1-1
HT 0-0
Melgar
PER
1-0
HT 1-0
Union Comercio
PER
0-0
HT 0-0
Melgar
PER
Melgar 2-1 Union Comercio — Actual Match Statistics
Melgar nicked a narrow win over Union Comercio 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Melgar as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.
On the day, Melgar had 80% of the ball to Union Comercio's 20%, shots finished 25-11, expected goals 3.51 to 1.33 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Melgar's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melgar had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Melgar and 0.67 for Union Comercio.
What was the final score of Melgar vs Union Comercio?
Melgar 2-1 Union Comercio in the Peru - Premier League on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melgar vs Union Comercio?
Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Melgar 66%, draw 20%, Union Comercio 14%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melgar), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.