Korona Kielce 3-3 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.17
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
39%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.88
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.04
6+ Goals
9%
18.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.25
1/2
10%
27.0
1/X
11%
14.15
X/1
11%
6.82
X/2
11%
4.48
X/X
10%
4.32
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.92
2/X
8%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
28%
+4.1pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.0pp
39%
Away Win
45%
-6.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.1pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 49%
+6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.15/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.12
+2% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +21%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
262 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 80%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
20.2 Crosses 19.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Korona Kielce
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Legia Varşova
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.06 xG 1.41
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
228 Passes 352
69% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 4
06.12.2023 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 2-1 HT 1-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POLK
20.08.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-0 HT 1-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
29.01.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 3-2 HT 2-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
16.07.2022 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-1 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
19.08.2012 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 4-0 HT 2-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
06.05.2012 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-0 HT 0-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Korona Kielce
3-3
AWAY Legia Varşova
2.37 xG 1.15
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
378 Passes 278
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Korona Kielce vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Korona Kielce and Legia Varşova couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 29% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Korona Kielce had 55% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 45%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 2.37 to 1.15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Korona Kielce and 1.83 for Legia Varşova.

What was the final score of Korona Kielce vs Legia Varşova?

Korona Kielce 3-3 Legia Varşova in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Korona Kielce vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated an Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Korona Kielce 32%, draw 29%, Legia Varşova 39%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL More Poland - Ekstraklasa
25 Feb 2024
14:30 Puszcza Niepolomice vs Zaglebie Lubin Analysis →
17:00 Widzew Lodz vs Gornik Zabrze Analysis →