Widzew Lodz 3-1 Gornik Zabrze — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 25 Feb 2024

Widzew Lodz
3-1 HT 2-0
Gornik Zabrze
📅25/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2023/2024

Widzew Lodz vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
37%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.25
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.63
6+ Goals
10%
14.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 27% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
3.25
1/2
7%
32.5
1/X
8%
12.6
X/1
19%
5.08
X/2
16%
6.3
X/X
10%
4.4
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
14%
4.42
2/X
8%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-5.0pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
37%
Away Win
31%
+6.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.5pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Widzew Lodz v Gornik Zabrze — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Widzew Lodz EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 34%
-13% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
1.36/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.34
-18% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
353 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 70%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
28.6 Crosses 18.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

Widzew Lodz vs Gornik Zabrze Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Widzew Lodz
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.07 xG 0.92
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
351 Passes 354
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
29 Box Touches 19
28 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
18.08.2023 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-1 HT 1-0 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
13.05.2023 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 2-3 HT 1-2 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
28.10.2022 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 3-0 HT 3-0 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
03.12.2013 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 3-2 HT 1-1 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
10.08.2013 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 0-3 HT 0-2 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
28.03.2013 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 3-1 HT 2-0 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL

Widzew Lodz 3-1 Gornik Zabrze — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Widzew Lodz
3-1
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
1.14 xG 0.70
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
366 Passes 450
84% Pass Accuracy 87%
19 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Widzew Lodz vs Gornik Zabrze
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Widzew Lodz beat Gornik Zabrze 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 37%) promised a tight game; Widzew Lodz found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Widzew Lodz had 46% of the ball to Gornik Zabrze's 54%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.14 to 0.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gornik Zabrze led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Widzew Lodz and 2.67 for Gornik Zabrze.

What was the final score of Widzew Lodz vs Gornik Zabrze?

Widzew Lodz 3-1 Gornik Zabrze in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Widzew Lodz vs Gornik Zabrze?

Before kick-off our model rated a Widzew Lodz win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Widzew Lodz 37%, draw 27%, Gornik Zabrze 37%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/27/37) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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