Azerbaycan 1-1 Bulgaristan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 25 Mar 2024

Azerbaycan
1-1 HT 0-0
Bulgaristan
📅25/03/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Friendlies – 2024

Azerbaycan vs Bulgaristan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.46
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
25%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.51
Over 2.5
40%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.51
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.72
6+ Goals
6%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
38%
+6.6pp
31%
Draw
31%
+0.2pp
25%
Away Win
32%
-6.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-3.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+3.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.4pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Azerbaycan v Bulgaristan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Azerbaycan EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Bulgaristan EU Bookmakers 34%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.83/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/0.03
+28% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +150%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
340 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
0.0 Yellow Cards 3.5

Azerbaycan vs Bulgaristan Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Azerbaycan
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Bulgaristan
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
6 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
358 Passes 361
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
The Meetings
13.10.2015 Bulgaristan Bulgaristan 2-0 HT 1-0 Azerbaycan Azerbaycan AVŞE
09.09.2014 Azerbaycan Azerbaycan 1-2 HT 0-1 Bulgaristan Bulgaristan AVŞE
17.11.2004 Azerbaycan Azerbaycan 0-0 HT 0-0 Bulgaristan Bulgaristan HAZ

Azerbaycan 1-1 Bulgaristan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Azerbaycan
1-1
AWAY Bulgaristan
57% Ball Possession 43%
20 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Azerbaycan vs Bulgaristan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Azerbaycan and Bulgaristan shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Azerbaycan at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

On the day, Azerbaycan had 57% of the ball to Bulgaristan's 43%, shots finished 20-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Bulgaristan led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Azerbaycan and 1.33 for Bulgaristan.

What was the final score of Azerbaycan vs Bulgaristan?

Azerbaycan 1-1 Bulgaristan in the Friendlies on 25/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Azerbaycan vs Bulgaristan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Azerbaycan win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Azerbaycan 44%, draw 31%, Bulgaristan 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Azerbaycan), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Azerbaycan) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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