AFC Hornchurch 1-0 Worthing — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 25 Mar 2025

📅25/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
37%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.44
2-3 Goals
35%
1.76
4-5 Goals
25%
3.14
6+ Goals
12%
11.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
28%
+9.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
38%
Away Win
46%
-8.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.4pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Hornchurch EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Worthing EU Bookmakers 50%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +12%
1.22/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/1.50
-6% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -21%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
272 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Hornchurch
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Worthing
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
33% Ball Possession 67%
4 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 8
0 Yellow Cards 3
07.09.2024 Worthing Worthing 0-0 HT 0-0 AFC Hornchurch AFC Hornchurch İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Hornchurch
1-0
AWAY Worthing
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 0
1 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH AFC Hornchurch vs Worthing
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Hornchurch squeezed past Worthing 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 38%) promised a tight game; AFC Hornchurch found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, AFC Hornchurch had 41% of the ball to Worthing's 59%, shots finished 9-4.

What was the final score of AFC Hornchurch vs Worthing?

AFC Hornchurch 1-0 Worthing in the England - Conference on 25/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Hornchurch vs Worthing?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Hornchurch win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split AFC Hornchurch 38%, draw 25%, Worthing 38%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/25/38) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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