Danubio 0-1 Atletico Paranaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 25 Apr 2024

📅25/04/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.5
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
38%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
61%
1.59
Over
39%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.99
No
59%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1
35%
2.49
2-3
43%
1.78
4-5
16%
4.77
6+
6%
27.0
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.49 — our 35% vs market 33.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
6.27
1/2
9%
29.5
1/X
8%
14.85
X/1
7%
7.54
X/2
12%
4.21
X/X
18%
3.89
2/1
10%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.76
2/X
6%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
25%
+5.5pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.4pp
38%
Away Win
46%
-7.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.2pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
46%
-5.3pp
59%
BTTS No
54%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Danubio EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 50%
+55% / +55% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.32/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/0.77
+12% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +56% / +38%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
257 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 78%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
13.0 Crosses 14.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Danubio
0-1
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
0.22 xG 0.46
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
273 Passes 426
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
7 Box Touches 6
21 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Danubio vs Atletico Paranaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense edged past Danubio 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (31% / 31% / 38%) promised a tight game; Atletico Paranaense found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Danubio had 42% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 58%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 0.22 to 0.46.

What was the final score of Danubio vs Atletico Paranaense?

Danubio 0-1 Atletico Paranaense in the Copa Sudamericana on 25/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Danubio vs Atletico Paranaense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Danubio 31%, draw 31%, Atletico Paranaense 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Paranaense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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