CA La Paz 3-1 Venados — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 25 Apr 2024

CA La Paz
3-1 HT 1-0
Venados
📅25/04/2024 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Mexico - Primera A – 2023/2024

CA La Paz vs Venados Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.94
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
45%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.91
Over 2.5
53%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
27%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+1.4pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.2pp
45%
Away Win
42%
+2.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.1pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

CA La Paz v Venados — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA La Paz EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Venados EU Bookmakers 46%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.54/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
+33% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
293 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

CA La Paz vs Venados Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA La Paz
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Venados
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
The Meetings
10.04.2024 CA La Paz CA La Paz 0-1 HT 0-1 Venados Venados MEK2
13.11.2023 Venados Venados 1-0 HT 1-0 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
12.08.2023 Venados Venados 1-3 HT 0-2 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
29.03.2023 CA La Paz CA La Paz 3-2 HT 1-0 Venados Venados MEK2
26.09.2022 Venados Venados 3-0 HT 0-0 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
POST-MATCH CA La Paz vs Venados
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA La Paz beat Venados 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Venados at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Venados led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for CA La Paz and 1.60 for Venados.

What was the final score of CA La Paz vs Venados?

CA La Paz 3-1 Venados in the Mexico - Primera A on 25/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA La Paz vs Venados?

Before kick-off our model rated an Venados win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split CA La Paz 32%, draw 23%, Venados 45%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Venados) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Venados) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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