Celaya 4-3 CD Tapatio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 25 Apr 2024

📅25/04/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
40%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
11%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
47%
-11.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.4pp
40%
Away Win
26%
+13.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.4pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celaya EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Tapatio EU Bookmakers 30%
+6% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +21%
1.68/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.20
+16% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +20%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
344 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celaya
2W-3D-1L
AWAY CD Tapatio
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
12.04.2024 Celaya Celaya 1-2 HT 0-1 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio MEK2
11.08.2023 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio 1-1 HT 1-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
04.02.2023 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio 2-2 HT 1-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
21.07.2022 Celaya Celaya 2-0 HT 1-0 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio MEK2
26.03.2022 Celaya Celaya 5-0 HT 3-0 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio MEK2
12.11.2021 CD Tapatio CD Tapatio 1-1 HT 1-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
POST-MATCH Celaya vs CD Tapatio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celaya edged past CD Tapatio 4-3. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 24% / 40%) promised a tight game; Celaya found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celaya had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Celaya and 1.00 for CD Tapatio.

What was the final score of Celaya vs CD Tapatio?

Celaya 4-3 CD Tapatio in the Mexico - Primera A on 25/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celaya vs CD Tapatio?

Before kick-off our model rated an CD Tapatio win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Celaya 36%, draw 24%, CD Tapatio 40%. The final score 4-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (CD Tapatio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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