Al Riyadh 2-1 Al Ahli Jeddah — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 25 Apr 2024

📅25/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
13%
7.18
Draw
22%
4.81
Away
65%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.29
Over 2.5
52%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
4.67
2-3 Goals
44%
1.91
4-5 Goals
23%
2.85
6+ Goals
10%
7.97
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.67 — our 23% vs market 16.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
11%
1/X
5%
X/1
5%
X/2
19%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
35%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
13%
Home Win
11%
+1.9pp
21%
Draw
18%
+3.7pp
65%
Away Win
71%
-5.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
40%
+8.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
60%
-8.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.2pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Riyadh EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ahli Jeddah EU Bookmakers 75%
+30% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -15%
0.90/1.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.25/1.19
+12% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -44%
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
221 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 460 · 85%
10.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.7
12.8 Crosses 24.2
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Riyadh
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Al Ahli Jeddah
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.34 xG 2.82
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 2
325 Passes 544
84% Pass Accuracy 93%
22 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
05.11.2023 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 3-0 HT 2-0 Al Riyadh Al Riyadh SUUD
12.03.2023 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 0-2 HT 0-1 Al Riyadh Al Riyadh SUUD1
16.10.2022 Al Riyadh Al Riyadh 0-2 HT 0-0 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah SUUD1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Riyadh
2-1
AWAY Al Ahli Jeddah
1.74 xG 2.27
33% Ball Possession 67%
6 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 5
198 Passes 467
71% Pass Accuracy 86%
9 Box Touches 29
5 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al Riyadh vs Al Ahli Jeddah
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Riyadh edged past Al Ahli Jeddah 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Al Ahli Jeddah at 65% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Al Riyadh had 33% of the ball to Al Ahli Jeddah's 67%, shots finished 6-18, expected goals 1.74 to 2.27 — the balance of chances actually favoured Al Ahli Jeddah.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Al Ahli Jeddah led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Al Riyadh and 1.67 for Al Ahli Jeddah.

What was the final score of Al Riyadh vs Al Ahli Jeddah?

Al Riyadh 2-1 Al Ahli Jeddah in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 25/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Riyadh vs Al Ahli Jeddah?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Ahli Jeddah win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Al Riyadh 13%, draw 21%, Al Ahli Jeddah 65%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Al Ahli Jeddah), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Ahli Jeddah) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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