Greuther Fürth 0-1 Ulm 1846 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 25 Apr 2025

📅25/04/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.8
Over 2.5
54%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.06
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.67
6+ Goals
12%
15.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.67 — our 24% vs market 21.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.9
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.6
X/1
12%
4.77
X/2
10%
7.08
X/X
11%
4.67
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
26.0
2/2
14%
5.32
2/X
7%
14.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 10% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+2.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.7pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Greuther Fürth EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Ulm 1846 EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.60/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
-2% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -81% / +150%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
277 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 74%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
20.8 Crosses 13.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Greuther Fürth
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Ulm 1846
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.76 xG 0.92
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
271 Passes 337
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
31 Box Touches 30
20 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 5
01.12.2024 Ulm 1846 Ulm 1846 1-1 HT 1-1 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Greuther Fürth
0-1
AWAY Ulm 1846
1.62 xG 0.70
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
281 Passes 239
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Greuther Fürth vs Ulm 1846
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ulm 1846 squeezed past Greuther Fürth 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Greuther Fürth at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Greuther Fürth had 52% of the ball to Ulm 1846's 48%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.62 to 0.70 — the balance of chances actually favoured Greuther Fürth.

What was the final score of Greuther Fürth vs Ulm 1846?

Greuther Fürth 0-1 Ulm 1846 in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Greuther Fürth vs Ulm 1846?

Before kick-off our model rated a Greuther Fürth win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Greuther Fürth 45%, draw 25%, Ulm 1846 30%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Greuther Fürth) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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