Green Gully 1-0 South Melbourne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 25 Apr 2025

📅25/04/2025 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.0pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.7pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+1.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.8pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Green Gully EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 37%
-12% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
2.45/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.39/3.09
-13% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +58%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
256 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 73%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.0 Crosses 18.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Green Gully
0W-1D-5L
AWAY South Melbourne
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.89 xG 1.60
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
200 Passes 134
58% Pass Accuracy 49%
26 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.07.2024 Green Gully Green Gully 0-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
12.04.2024 South Melbourne South Melbourne 3-0 HT 1-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
28.05.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 HT 1-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
24.02.2023 Green Gully Green Gully 1-3 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
04.09.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 HT 0-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
24.06.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 0-0 HT 0-0 Green Gully Green Gully AVNPL
POST-MATCH Green Gully vs South Melbourne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Green Gully edged past South Melbourne 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Green Gully as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, South Melbourne led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Green Gully and 1.50 for South Melbourne.

What was the final score of Green Gully vs South Melbourne?

Green Gully 1-0 South Melbourne in the Australia - National Premier League on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Green Gully vs South Melbourne?

Before kick-off our model rated a Green Gully win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Green Gully 42%, draw 24%, South Melbourne 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Green Gully) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Green Gully) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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