Macarthur 1-2 Melbourne Victory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 25 Apr 2025

Macarthur
1-2 HT 0-2
Melbourne Victory
📅25/04/2025 · 🕒12:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Macarthur vs Melbourne Victory Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.53
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
47%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.89
Over Pick
56%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.38
No
44%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1
19%
6.49
2-3
38%
2.15
4-5
32%
2.46
6+
11%
4.93
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.78
1/2
7%
21.05
1/X
3%
12.45
X/1
10%
6.79
X/2
10%
5.98
X/X ✗
16%
6.53
2/1
6%
23.3
2/2
30%
3.11
2/X
6%
12.3
Value flag · X/X at 6.53 — our 16% vs market 11.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 56% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
36%
-8.3pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.2pp
47%
Away Win
41%
+6.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
31%
+12.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
69%
-12.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
68%
-12.1pp
44%
BTTS No
32%
+12.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Macarthur v Melbourne Victory — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macarthur EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 45%
+7% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -16%
1.65/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.62
+16% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
363 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 82%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.7
23.8 Crosses 19.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.5

Macarthur vs Melbourne Victory Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macarthur
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Melbourne Victory
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.04 xG 1.97
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
300 Passes 440
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 42
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
03.11.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 2-1 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
29.09.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-1 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUK
10.02.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-1 HT 0-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
24.11.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 1-1 HT 1-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
23.04.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 2-1 HT 1-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
11.12.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 0-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS

Macarthur 1-2 Melbourne Victory — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macarthur
1-2
AWAY Melbourne Victory
2.02 xG 1.13
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
269 Passes 277
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 32
23 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Macarthur vs Melbourne Victory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory edged past Macarthur 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Melbourne Victory as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Macarthur had 50% of the ball to Melbourne Victory's 50%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 2.02 to 1.13 — the balance of chances actually favoured Macarthur.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Macarthur and 1.00 for Melbourne Victory.

What was the final score of Macarthur vs Melbourne Victory?

Macarthur 1-2 Melbourne Victory in the Australia - A-League on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Melbourne Victory?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 27%, draw 26%, Melbourne Victory 47%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Victory), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne Victory) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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