Al Ahly 1-1 Mamelodi Sundowns — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CAF Champions League, 25 Apr 2025

Al Ahly
1-1 HT 1-0
Mamelodi Sundowns
📅25/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
CAF Champions League – 2024/2025

Al Ahly vs Mamelodi Sundowns Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.89
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
63%
1.45
Over
37%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.33
No
54%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1
35%
1.99
2-3
44%
1.8
4-5
14%
5.98
6+
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.67
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
9%
15.55
X/1
17%
4.16
X/2
14%
8.64
X/X
12%
3.49
2/1
8%
35.0
2/2
7%
8.07
2/X ✗
11%
17.25
Value flag · 2/X at 17.25 — our 11% vs market 3.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 63% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-6.4pp
32%
Draw
31%
+1.1pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+5.3pp
63%
Under 2.5
65%
-1.8pp
37%
Over 2.5
35%
+1.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
39%
+7.1pp
54%
BTTS No
61%
-7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Al Ahly v Mamelodi Sundowns — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahly EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -56% / +65%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
341 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.6
– Crosses 6.7
– Yellow Cards 3.3

Al Ahly vs Mamelodi Sundowns Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahly
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.92 xG 1.06
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
290 Passes 372
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.04.2025 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Ahly Al Ahly CAFŞL
01.11.2023 Al Ahly Al Ahly 0-0 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns AFRFL
29.10.2023 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 HT 0-0 Al Ahly Al Ahly AFRFL
11.03.2023 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 5-2 HT 3-1 Al Ahly Al Ahly AŞL
25.02.2023 Al Ahly Al Ahly 2-2 HT 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns AŞL
12.03.2022 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 HT 1-0 Al Ahly Al Ahly AŞL

Al Ahly 1-1 Mamelodi Sundowns — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ahly
1-1
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns
1.06 xG 0.31
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
0 Corners 4
267 Passes 445
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
10 Box Touches 14
8 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Al Ahly vs Mamelodi Sundowns
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahly and Mamelodi Sundowns couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Al Ahly at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%) came in.

On the day, Al Ahly had 40% of the ball to Mamelodi Sundowns's 60%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 1.06 to 0.31.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mamelodi Sundowns led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Al Ahly and 1.50 for Mamelodi Sundowns.

What was the final score of Al Ahly vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

Al Ahly 1-1 Mamelodi Sundowns in the CAF Champions League on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahly vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahly win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Al Ahly 43%, draw 32%, Mamelodi Sundowns 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Al Ahly), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Ahly) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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