Sagan Tosu 2-1 Montedio Yamagata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 25 Apr 2025

Sagan Tosu
2-1 HT 2-0
Montedio Yamagata
📅25/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Japan - J2 League – 2025

Sagan Tosu vs Montedio Yamagata Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.96
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.64
6+ Goals
9%
15.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.96 — our 29% vs market 27.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
10%
2/2
18%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
41%
-2.7pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
34%
Away Win
32%
+1.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.7pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sagan Tosu v Montedio Yamagata — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 36%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
1.01/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.18
-23% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
340 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
17.3 Crosses 12.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.1

Sagan Tosu vs Montedio Yamagata Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sagan Tosu
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
The Meetings
14.11.2015 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 4-3 HT 1-1 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JPK
16.08.2015 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 1-3 HT 0-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
12.04.2015 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-0 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP

Sagan Tosu 2-1 Montedio Yamagata — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sagan Tosu
2-1
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 6
266 Passes 357
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sagan Tosu vs Montedio Yamagata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sagan Tosu edged past Montedio Yamagata 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 29% / 34%) promised a tight game; Sagan Tosu found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sagan Tosu had 43% of the ball to Montedio Yamagata's 57%, shots finished 13-16.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Sagan Tosu had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Sagan Tosu and 1.33 for Montedio Yamagata.

What was the final score of Sagan Tosu vs Montedio Yamagata?

Sagan Tosu 2-1 Montedio Yamagata in the Japan - J2 League on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sagan Tosu vs Montedio Yamagata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sagan Tosu win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sagan Tosu 38%, draw 29%, Montedio Yamagata 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sagan Tosu) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sagan Tosu) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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