V-Varen Nagasaki 3-4 Iwaki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 25 Apr 2025

📅25/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.08
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.51
6+ Goals
10%
14.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 28% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.5pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+1.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-2.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+2.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.0pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Iwaki EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +14%
1.67/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/0.77
+22% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / +61%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
292 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.7 Crosses 13.7
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Iwaki
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 8
234 Passes 357
72% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 0
15.09.2024 Iwaki Iwaki 0-2 HT 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
26.06.2024 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 3-1 HT 0-0 Iwaki Iwaki JAP2
06.08.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-0 HT 0-0 Iwaki Iwaki JAP2
29.04.2023 Iwaki Iwaki 0-1 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
3-4
AWAY Iwaki
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 11
12 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
302 Passes 130
71% Pass Accuracy 53%
29 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Iwaki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Iwaki edged past V-Varen Nagasaki 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was V-Varen Nagasaki at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 64% of the ball to Iwaki's 36%, shots finished 20-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 0.25 for Iwaki.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Iwaki?

V-Varen Nagasaki 3-4 Iwaki in the Japan - J2 League on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Iwaki?

Before kick-off our model rated a V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 46%, draw 25%, Iwaki 29%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✓ Over 2.5
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