Bahia vs Atletico Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Bahia v Atletico Nacional — Team-Based Signals
Bahia vs Atletico Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Atletico Nacional
CSA
1-0
HT 1-0
Bahia
CSA
Bahia 1-0 Atletico Nacional — Actual Match Statistics
Bahia edged past Atletico Nacional 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Bahia as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Bahia had 45% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 55%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.46 to 0.36.
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Bahia and 0.50 for Atletico Nacional.
What was the final score of Bahia vs Atletico Nacional?
Bahia 1-0 Atletico Nacional in the Copa Libertadores on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Bahia vs Atletico Nacional?
Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Bahia 45%, draw 30%, Atletico Nacional 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.