Bolivar 2-3 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 25 Apr 2025

Bolivar
2-3 HT 0-2
Palmeiras
📅25/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Copa Libertadores – 2025

Bolivar vs Palmeiras Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.33
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
1.86
Over Pick
53%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.21
2-3
40%
1.76
4-5 ✓
25%
3.4
6+
9%
13.1
Value flag · 4-5 at 3.4 — our 25% vs market 23.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.57
1/2 ✗
7%
30.0
1/X
10%
12.6
X/1
14%
5.62
X/2
9%
6.18
X/X
16%
4.58
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
16%
4.14
2/X
6%
12.75
Value flag · 1/2 at 30.0 — our 7% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 53% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
39%
-3.4pp
32%
Draw
28%
+4.2pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-0.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
50%
-2.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
50%
+2.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.9pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bolivar v Palmeiras — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bolivar EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 37%
+34% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +11%
1.72/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.27
+66% / +77% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 79%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.5
31.1 Crosses 14.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

Bolivar vs Palmeiras Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bolivar
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Palmeiras
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.11 xG 2.21
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 4
365 Passes 373
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 21
27 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.06.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 4-0 HT 2-0 Bolivar Bolivar LKU
06.04.2023 Bolivar Bolivar 3-1 HT 2-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras LKU
01.10.2020 Palmeiras Palmeiras 5-0 HT 1-0 Bolivar Bolivar LKU
17.09.2020 Bolivar Bolivar 1-2 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras LKU

Bolivar 2-3 Palmeiras — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bolivar
2-3
AWAY Palmeiras
1.52 xG 2.46
76% Ball Possession 24%
19 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
12 Corners 3
445 Passes 99
89% Pass Accuracy 60%
24 Box Touches 16
40 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bolivar vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras nicked a narrow win over Bolivar 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 32% / 32% — and on the day Palmeiras made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Bolivar had 76% of the ball to Palmeiras's 24%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 1.52 to 2.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Palmeiras led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Bolivar and 3.00 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Bolivar vs Palmeiras?

Bolivar 2-3 Palmeiras in the Copa Libertadores on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bolivar vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bolivar win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Bolivar 36%, draw 32%, Palmeiras 32%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Bolivar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bolivar) ✓ Over 2.5
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