Paços De Ferreira vs Uniao De Leiria Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Paços De Ferreira v Uniao De Leiria — Team-Based Signals
Paços De Ferreira vs Uniao De Leiria Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-1
Paços De Ferreira
POR2
0-0
HT 0-0
Uniao De Leiria
POR2
2-4
HT 2-2
Paços De Ferreira
POR
2-1
HT 0-0
Uniao De Leiria
POR
1-1
HT 0-0
Uniao De Leiria
POR
Paços De Ferreira 2-3 Uniao De Leiria — Actual Match Statistics
Uniao De Leiria nicked a narrow win over Paços De Ferreira 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 25% / 38% — and on the day Uniao De Leiria made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Paços De Ferreira had 40% of the ball to Uniao De Leiria's 60%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.70 to 1.50.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paços De Ferreira had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Paços De Ferreira and 0.83 for Uniao De Leiria.
What was the final score of Paços De Ferreira vs Uniao De Leiria?
Paços De Ferreira 2-3 Uniao De Leiria in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 25/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Paços De Ferreira vs Uniao De Leiria?
Before kick-off our model rated an Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Paços De Ferreira 37%, draw 25%, Uniao De Leiria 38%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uniao De Leiria), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.