Uniao De Leiria 0-1 Paços De Ferreira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 14 Dec 2024

Uniao De Leiria
0-1 HT 0-1
Paços De Ferreira
📅14/12/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Uniao De Leiria vs Paços De Ferreira Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.56
2-3 Goals
42%
1.71
4-5 Goals
18%
4.1
6+ Goals
11%
20.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
43%
-4.5pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.4pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.4pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Uniao De Leiria v Paços De Ferreira — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / +1%
1.57/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.25
+1% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -15%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
381 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
16.9 Crosses 18.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3

Uniao De Leiria vs Paços De Ferreira Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao De Leiria
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.88 xG 1.11
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
360 Passes 397
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
22.12.2023 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-1 HT 1-1 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2
12.08.2023 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 0-0 HT 0-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2
29.01.2012 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 2-4 HT 2-2 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
21.08.2011 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-1 HT 0-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
22.01.2011 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-1 HT 0-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
22.08.2010 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 0-0 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR

Uniao De Leiria 0-1 Paços De Ferreira — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uniao De Leiria
0-1
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
1.85 xG 1.00
70% Ball Possession 30%
13 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 1
444 Passes 147
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
37 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Uniao De Leiria vs Paços De Ferreira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paços De Ferreira edged past Uniao De Leiria 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 30% / 32% — and on the day Paços De Ferreira made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Uniao De Leiria had 70% of the ball to Paços De Ferreira's 30%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 1.85 to 1.00 — the balance of chances actually favoured Uniao De Leiria.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paços De Ferreira led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Uniao De Leiria and 1.33 for Paços De Ferreira.

What was the final score of Uniao De Leiria vs Paços De Ferreira?

Uniao De Leiria 0-1 Paços De Ferreira in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao De Leiria vs Paços De Ferreira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Uniao De Leiria 38%, draw 30%, Paços De Ferreira 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR2 More Portugal - 2nd Division
14 Dec 2024
15:45 Alverca vs Chaves Analysis →
17:00 Penafiel vs Leixoes Analysis →
18:30 Mafra vs Benfica II Analysis →