Alverca 3-1 Chaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.56
Over 2.5
46%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.99
No
48%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.31
2-3 Goals
45%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
4.65
6+ Goals
9%
27.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-1.1pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.6pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
60%
-6.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
40%
+6.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
46%
+6.0pp
48%
BTTS No
54%
-6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alverca EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Chaves EU Bookmakers 37%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +9%
1.25/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.30
+65% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +19%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
306 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.9 Crosses 15.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alverca
3-1
AWAY Chaves
2.06 xG 1.24
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
181 Passes 365
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alverca vs Chaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alverca got the better of Chaves 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 36%) promised a tight game; Alverca found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Alverca had 41% of the ball to Chaves's 59%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 2.06 to 1.24.

What was the final score of Alverca vs Chaves?

Alverca 3-1 Chaves in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alverca vs Chaves?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alverca win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Alverca 36%, draw 28%, Chaves 36%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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