Penafiel 3-1 Leixoes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
38%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.43
2-3 Goals
41%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
4.37
6+ Goals
8%
23.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-1.6pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.5pp
38%
Away Win
37%
+1.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.2pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Leixoes EU Bookmakers 40%
-3% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.24/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.21
-28% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +17%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
294 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.1 Crosses 17.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Leixoes
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.51 xG 1.05
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
255 Passes 300
73% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 3
21.01.2024 Leixoes Leixoes 0-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
13.08.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 3-0 HT 1-0 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
29.01.2023 Leixoes Leixoes 2-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
08.08.2022 Penafiel Penafiel 0-0 HT 0-0 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
01.04.2022 Leixoes Leixoes 0-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
07.11.2021 Penafiel Penafiel 1-1 HT 0-1 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
3-1
AWAY Leixoes
1.47 xG 1.76
44% Ball Possession 56%
6 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
133 Passes 234
64% Pass Accuracy 75%
5 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs Leixoes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel beat Leixoes 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 29% / 38% — and on the day Penafiel made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Penafiel had 44% of the ball to Leixoes's 56%, shots finished 6-11, expected goals 1.47 to 1.76.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penafiel had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Penafiel and 0.50 for Leixoes.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs Leixoes?

Penafiel 3-1 Leixoes in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Leixoes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leixoes win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 33%, draw 29%, Leixoes 38%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Leixoes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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