Penafiel vs Leixoes Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Penafiel v Leixoes — Team-Based Signals
Penafiel vs Leixoes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 1-0
Leixoes
POR2
2-1
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR2
0-0
HT 0-0
Leixoes
POR2
0-1
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR2
1-1
HT 0-1
Leixoes
POR2
Penafiel 3-1 Leixoes — Actual Match Statistics
Penafiel beat Leixoes 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.
We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 29% / 38% — and on the day Penafiel made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Penafiel had 44% of the ball to Leixoes's 56%, shots finished 6-11, expected goals 1.47 to 1.76.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penafiel had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Penafiel and 0.50 for Leixoes.
What was the final score of Penafiel vs Leixoes?
Penafiel 3-1 Leixoes in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Leixoes?
Before kick-off our model rated an Leixoes win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 33%, draw 29%, Leixoes 38%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.