Central Coast Mariners 3-1 Melbourne Victory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 25 May 2024

Central Coast Mariners
3-1 HT 0-0
Melbourne Victory
📅25/05/2024 · 🕒12:55 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.56
2-3 Goals
46%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.61
6+ Goals
7%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.36
1/2
3%
34.5
1/X
3%
13.45
X/1
8%
4.82
X/2
10%
6.17
X/X
17%
3.87
2/1
12%
31.5
2/2
18%
4.77
2/X
9%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-1.2pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.7pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.7pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Central Coast Mariners v Melbourne Victory — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Central Coast Mariners EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 33%
+8% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.78/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.44
-5% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +17%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
324 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 79%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
17.4 Crosses 18.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.7

Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Central Coast Mariners
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Melbourne Victory
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.70 xG 1.07
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
409 Passes 344
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.02.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-1 HT 0-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
13.01.2024 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 1-1 HT 0-1 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
03.12.2023 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 2-2 HT 1-1 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
19.03.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 2-0 HT 1-0 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners AVUS
31.12.2022 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 2-1 HT 1-1 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
09.03.2022 Central Coast Mariners Central Coast Mariners 1-1 HT 0-1 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS

Central Coast Mariners 3-1 Melbourne Victory — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Central Coast Mariners
3-1
AWAY Melbourne Victory
0.74 xG 0.75
58% Ball Possession 42%
7 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
673 Passes 439
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 27
27 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Central Coast Mariners got the better of Melbourne Victory 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 29% / 32% — and on the day Central Coast Mariners made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Central Coast Mariners had 58% of the ball to Melbourne Victory's 42%, shots finished 7-16, expected goals 0.74 to 0.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Central Coast Mariners had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Central Coast Mariners and 1.17 for Melbourne Victory.

What was the final score of Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory?

Central Coast Mariners 3-1 Melbourne Victory in the Australia - A-League on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory?

Before kick-off our model rated a Central Coast Mariners win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Central Coast Mariners 40%, draw 29%, Melbourne Victory 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Central Coast Mariners) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Central Coast Mariners) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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