Naesby 5-1 Avarta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 3rd Division, 25 May 2024

📅25/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-5.6pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.0pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+6.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.6pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naesby EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Avarta EU Bookmakers 25%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.93/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/2.20
+8% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -18%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
375 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naesby
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Avarta
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
12.05.2024 Avarta Avarta 1-3 HT 0-1 Naesby Naesby DAN3
06.04.2024 Avarta Avarta 2-4 HT 0-1 Naesby Naesby DAN3
19.08.2023 Naesby Naesby 0-0 HT 0-0 Avarta Avarta DAN3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naesby
5-1
AWAY Avarta
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Naesby vs Avarta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naesby swept aside Avarta 5-1. Half-time: 4-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Naesby as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Naesby had 61% of the ball to Avarta's 39%, shots finished 14-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Naesby had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Naesby and 1.00 for Avarta.

What was the final score of Naesby vs Avarta?

Naesby 5-1 Avarta in the Denmark - 3rd Division on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naesby vs Avarta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Naesby win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Naesby 48%, draw 23%, Avarta 28%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Naesby), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Naesby) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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