Incheon United 1-1 Gwangju — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 25 May 2024

Incheon United
1-1 HT 0-0
Gwangju
📅25/05/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
South Kore - K League Classic – 2024

Incheon United vs Gwangju Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.53
Draw
25%
2.83
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.81
No
60%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.78
2-3 Goals
45%
1.77
4-5 Goals
15%
4.2
6+ Goals
7%
20.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 33% vs market 30.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.83
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
11.85
X/1 EV+ ✗
20%
5.69
X/2
13%
6.01
X/X
14%
3.71
2/1
6%
32.5
2/2
15%
4.16
2/X
5%
11.9
Value flag · X/1 at 5.69 — our 20% vs market 13.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
36%
+5.9pp
25%
Draw
32%
-6.3pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+0.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.5pp
40%
BTTS Yes
51%
-11.1pp
60%
BTTS No
49%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Incheon United v Gwangju — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Incheon United EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Gwangju EU Bookmakers 36%
+3% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / +5%
0.90/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.25
-9% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
335 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 80%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
16.8 Crosses 17.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9

Incheon United vs Gwangju Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Incheon United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gwangju
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
342 Passes 443
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.04.2024 Gwangju Gwangju 2-3 HT 0-1 Incheon United Incheon United GKOK
28.10.2023 Gwangju Gwangju 0-2 HT 0-0 Incheon United Incheon United GKOK
18.08.2023 Incheon United Incheon United 2-2 HT 0-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
20.05.2023 Incheon United Incheon United 1-1 HT 0-1 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
18.03.2023 Gwangju Gwangju 5-0 HT 2-0 Incheon United Incheon United GKOK
27.04.2022 Incheon United Incheon United 1-6 HT 0-3 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK

Incheon United 1-1 Gwangju — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Incheon United
1-1
AWAY Gwangju
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 0
396 Passes 486
82% Pass Accuracy 89%
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Incheon United vs Gwangju
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Incheon United and Gwangju couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Incheon United at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, Incheon United had 42% of the ball to Gwangju's 58%, shots finished 12-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Incheon United and 2.67 for Gwangju.

What was the final score of Incheon United vs Gwangju?

Incheon United 1-1 Gwangju in the South Kore - K League Classic on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Incheon United vs Gwangju?

Before kick-off our model rated a Incheon United win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Incheon United 42%, draw 25%, Gwangju 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Incheon United), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Incheon United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
GKOK More South Kore - K League Classic
25 May 2024
08:00 Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu Analysis →
10:30 Ulsan Hyundai vs Daejeon Citizen Analysis →
13:00 Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul Analysis →