Spezia 2-1 Catanzaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 25 May 2025

📅25/05/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.82
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
23%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.12
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.62
6+ Goals
11%
14.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 30% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.53
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.95
X/1
13%
4.44
X/2
10%
8.23
X/X
12%
4.82
2/1
10%
24.65
2/2
7%
6.5
2/X
9%
15.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
51%
-2.6pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.4pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.3pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spezia EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Catanzaro EU Bookmakers 27%
+1% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.67/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.45
-2% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +17%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
341 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 79%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
25.7 Crosses 16.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spezia
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Catanzaro
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.63 xG 0.85
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
264 Passes 349
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.05.2025 Catanzaro Catanzaro 0-2 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
23.02.2025 Spezia Spezia 0-1 HT 0-0 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
21.12.2024 Catanzaro Catanzaro 0-1 HT 0-1 Spezia Spezia İTB
03.02.2024 Spezia Spezia 1-1 HT 1-1 Catanzaro Catanzaro İTB
30.08.2023 Catanzaro Catanzaro 3-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spezia
2-1
AWAY Catanzaro
0.99 xG 0.85
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
166 Passes 354
72% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Spezia vs Catanzaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spezia squeezed past Catanzaro 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Spezia as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Spezia had 35% of the ball to Catanzaro's 65%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 0.99 to 0.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Spezia and 1.00 for Catanzaro.

What was the final score of Spezia vs Catanzaro?

Spezia 2-1 Catanzaro in the Italy - Serie B on 25/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spezia vs Catanzaro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Spezia 48%, draw 29%, Catanzaro 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spezia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spezia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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