Spezia 1-1 Catanzaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 3 Feb 2024

Spezia
1-1 HT 1-1
Catanzaro
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2023/2024

Spezia vs Catanzaro Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.75
Over 2.5
42%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.96
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
3.9
6+ Goals
9%
17.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.96 — our 32% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.09
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
18%
4.72
X/2
9%
6.43
X/X
11%
4.28
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
13%
4.77
2/X
12%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
+0.0pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.7pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-1.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
53%
+4.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
47%
-4.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.7pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Spezia v Catanzaro — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spezia EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Catanzaro EU Bookmakers 33%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.35/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.48
-14% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
320 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 77%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
24.3 Crosses 13.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.6

Spezia vs Catanzaro Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spezia
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Catanzaro
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.44 xG 0.51
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
354 Passes 294
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 8
23 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.08.2023 Catanzaro Catanzaro 3-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB

Spezia 1-1 Catanzaro — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spezia
1-1
AWAY Catanzaro
1.48 xG 1.10
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
297 Passes 445
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
22 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Spezia vs Catanzaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spezia and Catanzaro couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Spezia at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Spezia had 43% of the ball to Catanzaro's 57%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.48 to 1.10.

What was the final score of Spezia vs Catanzaro?

Spezia 1-1 Catanzaro in the Italy - Serie B on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spezia vs Catanzaro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Spezia 43%, draw 29%, Catanzaro 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Spezia), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Spezia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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