Ternana 0-1 Como — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 3 Feb 2024

Ternana
0-1 HT 0-1
Como
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
38%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.75
Over 2.5
40%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.98
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
3.87
6+ Goals
8%
17.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 33% vs market 27.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.25
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
9%
13.3
X/1
10%
5.9
X/2
13%
5.03
X/X
11%
4.31
2/1
8%
32.5
2/2
18%
3.38
2/X
8%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.3pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.2pp
38%
Away Win
39%
-0.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
53%
+6.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
47%
-6.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.1pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ternana EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Como EU Bookmakers 43%
-1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.29/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/0.87
+5% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +0%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
299 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 77%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
19.6 Crosses 21.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ternana
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Como
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.78 xG 1.52
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
323 Passes 253
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
30 Box Touches 21
28 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.09.2023 Como Como 2-1 HT 0-0 Ternana Ternana İTB
13.05.2023 Como Como 3-1 HT 0-1 Ternana Ternana İTB
18.12.2022 Ternana Ternana 0-3 HT 0-1 Como Como İTB
15.03.2022 Como Como 1-1 HT 1-0 Ternana Ternana İTB
01.11.2021 Ternana Ternana 1-2 HT 0-1 Como Como İTB
01.05.2016 Como Como 1-2 HT 1-1 Ternana Ternana İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ternana
0-1
AWAY Como
0.39 xG 2.32
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 28
1 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 6
199 Passes 380
64% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 36
18 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ternana vs Como
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Como squeezed past Ternana 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (34% / 28% / 38%) promised a tight game; Como found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ternana had 39% of the ball to Como's 61%, shots finished 7-28, expected goals 0.39 to 2.32 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Como's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Como led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ternana and 2.00 for Como.

What was the final score of Ternana vs Como?

Ternana 0-1 Como in the Italy - Serie B on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ternana vs Como?

Before kick-off our model rated an Como win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Ternana 34%, draw 28%, Como 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Como), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Como) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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