İtalya U19 0-1 İspanya U19 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — European U19, 25 Jul 2024

📅25/07/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.8
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
40%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.91
Over 2.5
43%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
3.44
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.46
6+ Goals
7%
13.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.44 — our 34% vs market 23.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
19%
X/X
12%
2/1
13%
2/2
17%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-1.6pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.6pp
40%
Away Win
41%
-1.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.0pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İtalya U19 EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY İspanya U19 EU Bookmakers 45%
-24% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
0.56/1.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/0.48
-31% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +150%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
324 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 78%
12.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.7
20.2 Crosses 26.0
3.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İtalya U19
2W-0D-2L
AWAY İspanya U19
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
0.71 xG 0.98
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
227 Passes 486
76% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 22
5 Yellow Cards 3
13.07.2023 İspanya U19 İspanya U19 2-3 HT 0-0 İtalya U19 İtalya U19 U19
20.07.2019 İspanya U19 İspanya U19 2-1 HT 0-1 İtalya U19 İtalya U19 U19
16.01.2019 İtalya U19 İtalya U19 3-0 HT 1-0 İspanya U19 İspanya U19 HAZ
24.07.2010 İspanya U19 İspanya U19 3-0 HT 2-0 İtalya U19 İtalya U19 U19
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İtalya U19
0-1
AWAY İspanya U19
1.41 xG 1.59
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 7
580 Passes 495
90% Pass Accuracy 87%
37 Box Touches 30
25 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH İtalya U19 vs İspanya U19
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İspanya U19 squeezed past İtalya U19 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 29% / 40% — and on the day İspanya U19 made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, İtalya U19 had 53% of the ball to İspanya U19's 47%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.41 to 1.59.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for İtalya U19 and 1.75 for İspanya U19.

What was the final score of İtalya U19 vs İspanya U19?

İtalya U19 0-1 İspanya U19 in the European U19 on 25/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İtalya U19 vs İspanya U19?

Before kick-off our model rated an İspanya U19 win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split İtalya U19 31%, draw 29%, İspanya U19 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İspanya U19), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (İspanya U19) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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