Juventude 0-1 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 25 Jul 2025

📅25/07/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
4.04
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
40%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.52
Over 2.5
45%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.19
No
53%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.24
2-3 Goals
44%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
5.24
6+ Goals
7%
33.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
7.93
1/2
8%
31.0
1/X
5%
17.1
X/1 EV+ ✗
15%
8.73
X/2
6%
4.11
X/X
13%
3.89
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
26%
2.53
2/X
8%
15.45
Value flag · X/1 at 8.73 — our 15% vs market 8.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
22%
+11.8pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.4pp
40%
Away Win
51%
-10.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
62%
-6.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
38%
+6.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.3pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Juventude EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 55%
+6% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -6%
1.04/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/0.97
+5% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +10%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
255 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 444 · 84%
15.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
19.6 Crosses 22.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Juventude
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Sao Paulo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.67 xG 1.00
40% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
287 Passes 450
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
11 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.12.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-2 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
22.07.2024 Juventude Juventude 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
23.10.2022 Juventude Juventude 1-2 HT 1-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
27.06.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-0 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
13.05.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 1-0 Juventude Juventude BRK
21.04.2022 Juventude Juventude 2-2 HT 2-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Juventude
0-1
AWAY Sao Paulo
0.41 xG 1.01
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 16
0 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 8
244 Passes 489
77% Pass Accuracy 88%
13 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 31
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Juventude vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo squeezed past Juventude 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 27% / 40%) promised a tight game; Sao Paulo found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Juventude had 37% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 63%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 0.41 to 1.01.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Juventude and 1.17 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Juventude vs Sao Paulo?

Juventude 0-1 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 25/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Juventude vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Juventude 33%, draw 27%, Sao Paulo 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Paulo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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