Sao Paulo 1-2 Juventude — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 5 Dec 2024

📅05/12/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.88
No
57%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.19
2-3 Goals
35%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.76
6+ Goals
9%
15.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 33% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.2
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.35
X/1
19%
3.9
X/2
10%
9.8
X/X
15%
4.94
2/1
6%
24.7
2/2
9%
7.94
2/X
6%
16.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-6.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.7pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventude EU Bookmakers 22%
+1% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +8%
1.41/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.33
+3% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
379 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 78%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
21.6 Crosses 18.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Juventude
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.08 xG 0.63
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
407 Passes 290
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 10
24 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
22.07.2024 Juventude Juventude 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
23.10.2022 Juventude Juventude 1-2 HT 1-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
27.06.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 0-0 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
13.05.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 1-0 Juventude Juventude BRK
21.04.2022 Juventude Juventude 2-2 HT 2-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BRK
07.12.2021 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 3-1 HT 2-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
1-2
AWAY Juventude
0.54 xG 1.07
69% Ball Possession 31%
10 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 7
12 Corners 2
544 Passes 210
90% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 16
29 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Juventude
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Juventude edged past Sao Paulo 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sao Paulo at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 69% of the ball to Juventude's 31%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 0.54 to 1.07.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sao Paulo and 0.67 for Juventude.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Juventude?

Sao Paulo 1-2 Juventude in the Brazil - Serie A on 05/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Juventude?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 50%, draw 26%, Juventude 24%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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