Cruzeiro 1-2 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 5 Dec 2024

📅05/12/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.5
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
48%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.75
Over 2.5
38%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.82
No
59%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
3.06
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
18%
3.9
6+ Goals
8%
17.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.06 — our 35% vs market 27.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
6.06
1/2
6%
27.0
1/X
8%
13.9
X/1
10%
7.9
X/2
14%
4.47
X/X
12%
4.35
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
29%
2.69
2/X
7%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
25%
-1.4pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
49%
Away Win
47%
+1.5pp
62%
Under 2.5
53%
+9.0pp
38%
Over 2.5
47%
-9.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
51%
-10.3pp
59%
BTTS No
49%
+10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 51%
-19% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +14%
1.27/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/0.97
-60% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +103%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
320 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 82%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
23.3 Crosses 20.9
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Palmeiras
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.85 xG 1.18
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
346 Passes 301
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
21.07.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-0 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
07.12.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
15.08.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
08.12.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-2 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
15.09.2019 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
30.09.2018 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-1 HT 2-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro
1-2
AWAY Palmeiras
0.71 xG 2.87
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 31
3 Shots on Target 12
7 Corners 6
351 Passes 425
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
11 Box Touches 45
26 Crosses 36
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras nicked a narrow win over Cruzeiro 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cruzeiro had 46% of the ball to Palmeiras's 54%, shots finished 9-31, expected goals 0.71 to 2.87 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Palmeiras's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Cruzeiro and 1.67 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?

Cruzeiro 1-2 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 05/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated an Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 24%, draw 28%, Palmeiras 49%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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