Atletico Goianiense 3-1 Fortaleza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 5 Dec 2024

📅05/12/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.97
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
4.03
6+ Goals
9%
18.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.69
1/2
6%
32.5
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
13%
5.39
X/2
13%
5.81
X/X
11%
4.21
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
13%
4.11
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.15
Value flag · 2/X at 13.15 — our 11% vs market 4.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+2.7pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.7pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-1.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-2.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+2.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.3pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Goianiense EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +8%
1.14/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.51
-24% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -13%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
347 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 78%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
21.4 Crosses 18.3
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Goianiense
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Fortaleza
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.88 xG 1.11
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
282 Passes 326
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.07.2024 Fortaleza Fortaleza 3-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
06.11.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
18.07.2022 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 0-1 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
02.10.2021 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
18.06.2021 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 0-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
25.01.2021 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Goianiense
3-1
AWAY Fortaleza
2.12 xG 1.62
56% Ball Possession 44%
27 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
396 Passes 299
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
37 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atletico Goianiense vs Fortaleza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Goianiense got the better of Fortaleza 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and on the day Atletico Goianiense made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Atletico Goianiense had 56% of the ball to Fortaleza's 44%, shots finished 27-12, expected goals 2.12 to 1.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atletico Goianiense and 0.83 for Fortaleza.

What was the final score of Atletico Goianiense vs Fortaleza?

Atletico Goianiense 3-1 Fortaleza in the Brazil - Serie A on 05/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Goianiense vs Fortaleza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Goianiense win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Atletico Goianiense 40%, draw 28%, Fortaleza 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Goianiense), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Goianiense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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