Vasco da Gama 2-0 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 5 Dec 2024

📅05/12/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
30%
2.83
Away
37%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.48
Over 2.5
41%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.21
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
18%
5.77
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.49
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
12%
5.69
X/2
6%
5.21
X/X
17%
3.44
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
25%
3.96
2/X
6%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
33%
-1.0pp
30%
Draw
31%
-1.0pp
37%
Away Win
35%
+2.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
64%
-4.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
36%
+4.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.2pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 39%
+8% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -15%
1.33/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.21
+3% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
320 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 79%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
19.6 Crosses 18.1
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.35 xG 1.42
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
232 Passes 494
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BRK
03.10.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-1 HT 2-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BRK
21.07.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-0 HT 2-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
20.08.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
16.04.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-2 HT 1-2 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
24.01.2021 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 3-2 HT 2-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
2-0
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.32 xG 0.68
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
380 Passes 272
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 9
24 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vasco da Gama vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vasco da Gama beat Atletico Mineiro 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 30% / 37% — and on the day Vasco da Gama made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Vasco da Gama had 58% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 42%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.32 to 0.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vasco da Gama had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.33 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Atletico Mineiro?

Vasco da Gama 2-0 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 05/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 32%, draw 30%, Atletico Mineiro 37%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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