Vasco da Gama 1-1 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 20 Oct 2024

Vasco da Gama
1-1 HT 1-0
Atletico Mineiro
📅20/10/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Cup – 2024

Vasco da Gama vs Atletico Mineiro Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.47
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.62
Over 2.5
38%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.9
No
58%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.58
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.57
6+ Goals
8%
24.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.58 — our 38% vs market 32.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.82
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.45
X/1
15%
5.27
X/2
13%
5.52
X/X
12%
3.88
2/1
6%
33.0
2/2
12%
4.09
2/X
7%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-0.4pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.1pp
34%
Away Win
34%
+0.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
58%
+4.1pp
38%
Over 2.5
42%
-4.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.2pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vasco da Gama v Atletico Mineiro — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 37%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.61/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/2.06
+123% / -54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -30%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
299 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 80%
14.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.9
20.9 Crosses 8.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9

Vasco da Gama vs Atletico Mineiro Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.08 xG 1.82
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
242 Passes 493
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.10.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-1 HT 2-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BRK
21.07.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-0 HT 2-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
20.08.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
16.04.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-2 HT 1-2 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
24.01.2021 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 3-2 HT 2-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
05.10.2020 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 4-1 HT 4-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1

Vasco da Gama 1-1 Atletico Mineiro — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
1-1
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.95 xG 0.61
37% Ball Possession 63%
13 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
193 Passes 441
66% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 10
33 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vasco da Gama vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vasco da Gama and Atletico Mineiro couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (36% / 29% / 34%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Vasco da Gama had 37% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 63%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.95 to 0.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.83 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Atletico Mineiro?

Vasco da Gama 1-1 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Cup on 20/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 36%, draw 29%, Atletico Mineiro 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Vasco da Gama), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vasco da Gama) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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