Luzern 1-3 Thun — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 25 Jul 2026

Luzern
1-3 HT 1-1
Thun
📅25/07/2026 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Switzerland - Super League – 2026/2027

Luzern vs Thun Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.49
No
39%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.1
2-3 Goals
38%
1.95
4-5 Goals
30%
2.6
6+ Goals
11%
6.34
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.25
1/2
7%
33.5
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
17%
4.7
X/2
13%
8.85
X/X
9%
6.12
2/1
7%
19.6
2/2
10%
5.94
2/X
8%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-7.0pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.4pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+6.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.2pp
61%
BTTS Yes
63%
-2.3pp
39%
BTTS No
37%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Luzern v Thun — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luzern EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Thun EU Bookmakers 28%
-2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +39%
1.98/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.53
+17% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +40%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
341 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 77%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.9
20.7 Crosses 16.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4

Luzern vs Thun Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luzern
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Thun
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.65 xG 2.92
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 10
322 Passes 224
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 42
22 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
28.02.2026 Thun Thun 2-1 HT 2-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
06.12.2025 Thun Thun 4-1 HT 3-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
09.08.2025 Luzern Luzern 1-2 HT 1-1 Thun Thun İSV
16.09.2023 Thun Thun 1-3 HT 1-0 Luzern Luzern İSVK
31.01.2023 Thun Thun 2-2 HT 0-1 Luzern Luzern İSVK
13.09.2020 Thun Thun 0-1 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSVK

Luzern 1-3 Thun — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luzern
1-3
AWAY Thun
2.53 xG 1.92
22 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 7
12 Corners 6
301 Passes 261
42 Box Touches 25
24 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Luzern vs Thun
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Thun beat Luzern 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Luzern at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (61%) came in.

On the day, shots finished 22-21, expected goals 2.53 to 1.92 — the balance of chances actually favoured Luzern.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Thun led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Luzern and 1.83 for Thun.

What was the final score of Luzern vs Thun?

Luzern 1-3 Thun in the Switzerland - Super League on 25/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luzern vs Thun?

Before kick-off our model rated a Luzern win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Luzern 46%, draw 24%, Thun 31%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Luzern) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Luzern) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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