Thun 2-1 Luzern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 28 Feb 2026

Thun
2-1 HT 2-1
Luzern
📅28/02/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Switzerland - Super League – 2025/2026

Thun vs Luzern Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.82
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.59
Over 2.5
63%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.43
No
37%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.55
2-3 Goals
38%
2.0
4-5 Goals
30%
2.52
6+ Goals
14%
5.71
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.37
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
7%
12.3
X/1
18%
4.95
X/2
9%
8.4
X/X
8%
6.16
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.55
2/2
13%
5.35
2/X
7%
13.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.55 — our 10% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
51%
-0.5pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.6pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.2pp
37%
Under 2.5
35%
+1.8pp
63%
Over 2.5
65%
-1.8pp
63%
BTTS Yes
66%
-3.0pp
37%
BTTS No
34%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Thun v Luzern — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Thun EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Luzern EU Bookmakers 29%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -2%
2.06/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.54
+23% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
344 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 76%
31.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
21.8 Crosses 15.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Thun vs Luzern Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Thun
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Luzern
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
2.12 xG 1.58
50% Ball Possession 50%
19 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 4
305 Passes 281
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
33 Box Touches 23
28 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.12.2025 Thun Thun 4-1 HT 3-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
09.08.2025 Luzern Luzern 1-2 HT 1-1 Thun Thun İSV
16.09.2023 Thun Thun 1-3 HT 1-0 Luzern Luzern İSVK
31.01.2023 Thun Thun 2-2 HT 0-1 Luzern Luzern İSVK
13.09.2020 Thun Thun 0-1 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSVK
05.07.2020 Luzern Luzern 3-0 HT 2-0 Thun Thun İSV

Thun 2-1 Luzern — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Thun
2-1
AWAY Luzern
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Thun vs Luzern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Thun edged past Luzern 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Thun as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (63%) came in.

On the day, Thun had 48% of the ball to Luzern's 52%, shots finished 13-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Luzern led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Thun and 1.83 for Luzern.

What was the final score of Thun vs Luzern?

Thun 2-1 Luzern in the Switzerland - Super League on 28/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Thun vs Luzern?

Before kick-off our model rated a Thun win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Thun 50%, draw 22%, Luzern 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Thun), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Thun) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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