St. Gallen 2-1 Winterthur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 28 Feb 2026

📅28/02/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
70%
1.27
Draw
19%
5.71
Away
11%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.98
Over 2.5
61%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
6.9
2-3 Goals
37%
2.17
4-5 Goals
30%
2.37
6+ Goals
15%
4.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.39
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
7%
21.4
X/1 EV+ ✗
29%
3.99
X/2
4%
21.05
X/X
7%
10.1
2/1
8%
18.7
2/2
3%
16.3
2/X
6%
24.8
Value flag · X/1 at 3.99 — our 29% vs market 19.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
70%
Home Win
74%
-4.6pp
19%
Draw
15%
+4.5pp
11%
Away Win
11%
+0.1pp
39%
Under 2.5
30%
+9.5pp
61%
Over 2.5
70%
-9.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.8pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Gallen EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Winterthur EU Bookmakers 14%
-2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
2.12/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/2.19
+0% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -19%
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
494 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 78%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
18.8 Crosses 12.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Gallen
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Winterthur
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.09 xG 1.75
56% Ball Possession 44%
21 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
382 Passes 252
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
36 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
18.02.2026 Winterthur Winterthur 1-5 HT 0-2 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
09.08.2025 St. Gallen St. Gallen 5-0 HT 3-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
10.05.2025 St. Gallen St. Gallen 1-4 HT 1-2 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
01.03.2025 Winterthur Winterthur 4-0 HT 3-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
30.10.2024 St. Gallen St. Gallen 2-2 HT 1-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
20.07.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 1-0 HT 0-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Gallen
2-1
AWAY Winterthur
3.96 xG 1.19
64% Ball Possession 36%
19 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 3
349 Passes 157
82% Pass Accuracy 63%
45 Box Touches 22
39 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH St. Gallen vs Winterthur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Gallen edged past Winterthur 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had St. Gallen as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, St. Gallen had 64% of the ball to Winterthur's 36%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 3.96 to 1.19 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold St. Gallen's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Winterthur led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for St. Gallen and 2.00 for Winterthur.

What was the final score of St. Gallen vs Winterthur?

St. Gallen 2-1 Winterthur in the Switzerland - Super League on 28/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Gallen vs Winterthur?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Gallen win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split St. Gallen 70%, draw 19%, Winterthur 11%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Gallen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (St. Gallen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İSV More Switzerland - Super League
28 Feb 2026
20:00 Thun vs Luzern Analysis →
22:30 Servette vs Sion Analysis →