Motherwell 3-1 Hearts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 25 Aug 2024

Motherwell
3-1 HT 1-0
Hearts
📅25/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2024/2025

Motherwell vs Hearts Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.84
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
39%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.78
Over 2.5
54%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.08
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
23%
3.8
6+ Goals
10%
16.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.8 — our 23% vs market 21.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.58
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
17%
6.35
X/2
11%
4.96
X/X
8%
4.3
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
2/2
21%
3.22
2/X
9%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
32%
+6.4pp
23%
Draw
28%
-4.6pp
39%
Away Win
41%
-1.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
52%
-6.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
48%
+6.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.3pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Motherwell v Hearts — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motherwell EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Hearts EU Bookmakers 45%
+2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.25/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.30
+11% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -13%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
240 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 74%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
20.2 Crosses 19.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Motherwell vs Hearts Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motherwell
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Hearts
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.49 xG 1.77
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 9
227 Passes 408
71% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 28
25 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.02.2024 Hearts Hearts 2-0 HT 0-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
11.11.2023 Motherwell Motherwell 1-2 HT 0-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
03.09.2023 Hearts Hearts 0-1 HT 0-1 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
19.02.2023 Motherwell Motherwell 2-0 HT 1-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
06.11.2022 Hearts Hearts 3-2 HT 1-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
18.09.2022 Motherwell Motherwell 0-3 HT 0-1 Hearts Hearts İKP

Motherwell 3-1 Hearts — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motherwell
3-1
AWAY Hearts
2.54 xG 0.62
32% Ball Possession 68%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 7
200 Passes 530
70% Pass Accuracy 86%
28 Box Touches 24
23 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Motherwell vs Hearts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motherwell saw off Hearts 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 23% / 39%) promised a tight game; Motherwell found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Motherwell had 32% of the ball to Hearts's 68%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 2.54 to 0.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hearts led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Motherwell and 1.67 for Hearts.

What was the final score of Motherwell vs Hearts?

Motherwell 3-1 Hearts in the Scotland - Premiership on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motherwell vs Hearts?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Motherwell 38%, draw 23%, Hearts 39%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Hearts) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hearts) ✓ Over 2.5
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