AFC Malmö 4-1 Tvaaker — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - 1st Division, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.86
Draw
32%
3.45
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
50%
-7.0pp
32%
Draw
26%
+6.1pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Malmö EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Tvaaker EU Bookmakers 28%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +21%
1.63/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.16
-4% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +40%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
315 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Malmö
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Tvaaker
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
6 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.06.2024 Tvaaker Tvaaker 0-2 HT 0-1 AFC Malmö İSÇ3
19.08.2023 AFC Malmö 0-1 HT 0-0 Tvaaker Tvaaker İSÇ3
29.04.2023 Tvaaker Tvaaker 0-1 HT 0-1 AFC Malmö İSÇ3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Malmö
4-1
AWAY Tvaaker
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AFC Malmö vs Tvaaker
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Malmö cruised past Tvaaker 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had AFC Malmö as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AFC Malmö had 61% of the ball to Tvaaker's 39%, shots finished 11-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, AFC Malmö had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for AFC Malmö and 0.33 for Tvaaker.

What was the final score of AFC Malmö vs Tvaaker?

AFC Malmö 4-1 Tvaaker in the Sweden - 1st Division on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Malmö vs Tvaaker?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Malmö win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split AFC Malmö 43%, draw 32%, Tvaaker 25%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AFC Malmö) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AFC Malmö) ✗ Under 2.5
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