Ulm 1846 1-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.17
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.78
Over 2.5
53%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.07
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.81
6+ Goals
11%
16.55
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.81 — our 25% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.16
1/2 EV+ ✓
9%
26.5
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1
11%
6.9
X/2
11%
4.58
X/X
12%
4.42
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.9
2/X
8%
13.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.5 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
28%
+0.6pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.4pp
43%
Away Win
44%
-1.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.4pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ulm 1846 EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Düsseldorf EU Bookmakers 48%
-46% / -46% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +23%
0.66/2.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.03
-25% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +68%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
247 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 76%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
20.0 Crosses 19.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ulm 1846
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 5.00
0.78 xG 1.89
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 5
278 Passes 403
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 3
30.10.2018 Ulm 1846 Ulm 1846 1-5 HT 1-4 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ulm 1846
1-2
AWAY Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.43 xG 2.91
45% Ball Possession 55%
21 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
273 Passes 329
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Ulm 1846 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortuna Düsseldorf squeezed past Ulm 1846 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fortuna Düsseldorf as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Ulm 1846 had 45% of the ball to Fortuna Düsseldorf's 55%, shots finished 21-12, expected goals 1.43 to 2.91 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fortuna Düsseldorf's control.

What was the final score of Ulm 1846 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?

Ulm 1846 1-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ulm 1846 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fortuna Düsseldorf win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ulm 1846 29%, draw 28%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortuna Düsseldorf), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fortuna Düsseldorf) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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