Nantes 2-0 Auxerre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
40%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.73
No
54%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.24
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.64
6+ Goals
9%
14.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.24 — our 33% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.49
1/2
8%
31.0
1/X
7%
12.75
X/1
10%
5.3
X/2
12%
5.9
X/X
16%
4.43
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
20%
4.06
2/X
6%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
39%
-7.2pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.6pp
40%
Away Win
33%
+6.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
54%
-8.2pp
54%
BTTS No
46%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nantes EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Auxerre EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +21%
1.41/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.14
+17% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +93% / +150%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
337 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 77%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
22.0 Crosses 12.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nantes
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Auxerre
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.99 xG 1.72
65% Ball Possession 35%
20 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
444 Passes 197
82% Pass Accuracy 65%
31 Box Touches 12
31 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
16.04.2023 Auxerre Auxerre 2-1 HT 2-0 Nantes Nantes FR1
01.01.2023 Nantes Nantes 1-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
23.01.2018 Nantes Nantes 3-4 HT 1-3 Auxerre Auxerre FRK
17.12.2013 Nantes Nantes 1-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FRLK
20.04.2013 Nantes Nantes 1-1 HT 1-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
24.11.2012 Auxerre Auxerre 0-2 HT 0-1 Nantes Nantes FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nantes
2-0
AWAY Auxerre
1.44 xG 1.11
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 12
213 Passes 468
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 32
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nantes vs Auxerre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nantes beat Auxerre 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Nantes made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Nantes had 35% of the ball to Auxerre's 65%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 1.44 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nantes had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Nantes and 1.17 for Auxerre.

What was the final score of Nantes vs Auxerre?

Nantes 2-0 Auxerre in the France - Ligue 1 on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nantes vs Auxerre?

Before kick-off our model rated an Auxerre win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Nantes 32%, draw 28%, Auxerre 40%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Auxerre) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Auxerre) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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