Nice vs Toulouse Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Nice v Toulouse — Team-Based Signals
Nice vs Toulouse Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Toulouse
FR1
0-0
HT 0-0
Toulouse
FR1
1-1
HT 1-0
Nice
FR1
0-2
HT 0-1
Nice
FR1
3-0
HT 3-0
Toulouse
FR1
Nice 1-1 Toulouse — Actual Match Statistics
Nice and Toulouse couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.
Our pre-match lean was Nice at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Nice had 57% of the ball to Toulouse's 43%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 1.28 to 0.98.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nice had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Nice and 0.50 for Toulouse.
What was the final score of Nice vs Toulouse?
Nice 1-1 Toulouse in the France - Ligue 1 on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Nice vs Toulouse?
Before kick-off our model rated a Nice win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Nice 47%, draw 27%, Toulouse 27%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.